Russia ‘unlikely to recapture’ much of land seized by Ukraine in Kursk

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Russia is unlikely to reclaim much of the land that Ukraine has seized in its cross-border raid into Kursk, Western officials have said.
Kyiv’s forces in the area have now gone on the defensive, the source added, as both Ukraine and Russia said that Moscow’s first major counter-offensive in the southern frontier region had begun.
Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, said that the assault was “going in line with our Ukrainian plan” amid claims his troops had lost a 10th of the territory snatched during the surprise incursion.
“Ukrainian forces have moved into a defensive position,” a Western official said.
“They currently occupy about 820 square kilometres [317 square miles], and we assess that the area of occupation will remain fairly static on the Ukrainian part over the coming weeks.
“The Russians have started to make local and tactical counter-attacks, and they have likely made minor gains in that oblast, but they’ll continue to build mass for a more deliberate level counter-offensive.”
Mr Zelensky had previously claimed that his forces had captured an enclave of 1,300 square kilometres and 100 settlements in the assault, which was designed to reclaim the battlefield initiative from Moscow.
On Thursday, the Ukrainian president said: “The Russians have begun counter-offensive actions. It is going according to our Ukrainian plan.”
“We have seen it for a long time – this process is under control,” he added.
Sergei Lavrov, Russia’s foreign minister, said that Ukrainian forces were “now being steadily squeezed out from” Kursk and “will be squeezed out completely, there can be no doubt about it”.
Vladimir Putin had reportedly ordered his forces to expel Ukraine from the region by Oct 1.
Western governments also had intelligence to suggest that the Russians would soon mount a fightback against the Ukrainian occupation of Kursk.
Moscow responded by directing 60 per cent of its aerial activity at the region in the early days of the incursion.
But as Kyiv’s troops remained on its territory, Russia shifted its bombing campaigns to eastern Ukraine, where its forces were advancing on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk.
“We had indicators and warnings that Russia was responding, and Ukraine did as well,” the Western official said.
The Russian ground offensive had taken time to launch because of difficulties in moving large military forces, they added.
Moscow’s forces are probably trying to “bisect” Ukrainian troops holding land in Kursk, with their main thrust aimed at cutting ground lines of communications between units in the area.
“Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast before beginning a more organised and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory,” the Institute for the Study of War wrote in its latest battlefield update.
“Russian forces may intend to cut the Ukrainian salient and advance to the international border southeast of Snagost to complicate existing Ukrainian logistics routes and fire support positions closer to the international border before beginning a larger-scale counter-offensive operation.”
Russian sources claimed that the initial thrust by at least eight tanks and armoured vehicles came from the town of Korenevo, one that has remained under Moscow’s control despite heavy fighting in its vicinity.
The pro-Kremlin military bloggers said that Snagost and a number of other nearby settlements had been liberated.
The Telegraph could not verify their claims.
Elements of Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry Brigade, 56th and 51st VDV regiments – which have all been involved in serious battles across the front lines in Ukraine – have all been spotted in Kursk.
But Western officials said that Moscow hadn’t “suddenly pulled out elite troops here with exquisite equipment”.
Meanwhile, Russians killed three Ukrainian workers for the International Committee of the Red Cross in an attack on an aid delivery to a village on the front line in Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Kyiv said.
“In this war, everything is absolutely clear – Russia sows evil, Ukraine defends life,” Mr Zelensky added.
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A Russian strike on Red Cross vehicles in eastern Ukraine killed three people, the country’s president Volodymyr Zelensky has said. 
“Today, the occupier attacked the vehicles of the International Committee of the Red Cross humanitarian mission in the Donetsk region,” Zelensky said.
The International Committee of the Red Cross confirmed that three of its staffers had been killed when shelling hit a site of a planned frontline aid distribution in Viroliubivka village, north of Donetsk city. 
The ICRC did not say who was behind the shelling.
ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric said: “I condemn attacks on Red Cross personnel in the strongest terms. Our hearts are broken today as we mourn the loss of our colleagues and care for the injured.”
The Prime Minister has arrived in the US to hold talks with President Joe Biden to discuss the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. 
Sir Keir Starmer is expected to meet Mr Biden in the White House on Friday following pleas from Ukraine to lift restrictions on using long-range missiles against Russia.
Neither man was drawn on granting Ukraine permission to use the long-range missiles supplied by the West to attack targets in Russia, PA news agency reported.
Concern surrounding potential escalation has been one of the reasons why permission has not yet been granted to Kyiv.
Ukraine has shot down a Russian jet in an operation over the Black Sea, Kyiv has said.
The SU-30 fighter jet has an estimated price tag of around $50 million (£38 million), local media reported.  
The jet was reportedly shot down by a portable air defence system and belonged to a regiment based at the Saky air base in Crimea. 
Counter-terror police from Scotland Yard are supporting officers in Gibraltar investigating the death of Telegraph journalist David Knowles, writes Martin Evans.
Detectives from the Metropolitan Police travelled to Gibraltar following a request for assistance for their colleagues in the British Overseas Territory.
Mr Knowles, 32, who was one of the presenters on the award-winning Telegraph podcast, Ukraine: The Latest, was on holiday in Gibraltar at the weekend, when he died suddenly from a suspected cardiac arrest.
In a statement the Royal Gibraltar Police (RGP) stressed that despite the request for assistance from Scotland Yard, there were no specific concerns at this time surrounding the death.
Read more here.
Russian forces are trying to “bisect” Ukrainian troops holding land in Kursk , western analysts have said. 
This counter-offensive could be followed by a much larger assault by better-equipped forces from Moscow.
The institute for the Study of War wrote: “Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast before beginning a more organized and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory.
“Russian forces may intend to cut the Ukrainian salient and advance to the international border southeast of Snagost to complicate existing Ukrainian logistics routes and fire support positions closer to the international border before beginning a larger-scale counteroffensive operation.”
Russian sources have suggested that Moscow has already reclaimed more than a tenth of the 1,300 square kilometres claimed by Volodymyr Zelensky’s men in the last 36 days. 
Washington will “adjust” to do what is necessary to defend Ukraine, Antony Blinken has said, after Zelensky appealed for the US to lift restrictions on the use of long-range missiles inside Russia. 
In language that was similar to a message he delivered in May, shortly before the US gave Ukraine permission to use its weapons inside Russia, the secretary of state told a press conference in Warsaw: “As what Russia’s doing has changed, as the battlefield has changed, we’ve adapted.”
He continued: “One of the purposes of my visit to Kyiv yesterday was to hear from our Ukrainian partners what they believe they need now to deal with the current battlefield, including in eastern Ukraine and other parts of the country. 
I can tell you that as we go forward we will do exactly what we have already done, which is we will adjust as necessary in order to defend against Russian aggression.”
Residents of the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk are without drinking water or natural gas for cooking and heating, as the Russian army continues its advance across the Donetsk region. 
A water filtration station in Pokrovsk was damaged in recent fighting and on Wednesday, Russian forces destroyed a natural gas distribution centre near the city, Vadym Filashkin, Donetsk’s regional governor said. 
Pokrovsk is one of Ukraine’s main strongholds. The city, which has 18,000 people remaining, serves as a key logistics hub in the Donetsk region. 
Its capture would bring Russia closer to achieving its goal of capturing the entire Donetsk region, which it currently only partially occupies. 
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, has touched down in Poland for talks with Prime Minister Donald Tusk and President Andrzej Duda. 
The US secretary of state is expected to discuss further coordination with Poland – a logistically important country for transporting Western military aid into Ukraine.
Poland has also ramped up purchases of US weapons since the invasion of Ukraine, such as a deal with Boeing to buy 96 Apache attack helicopters for $10 billion signed last month.
Antony Blinken, the US secretary of state, has finished his visit to Ukraine after hearing repeated appeals from Kyiv to use Western-supplied weaponry for long-range strikes inside Russia.
Mr Blinken travelled to Warsaw today after spending a day in Kyiv with David Lammy during which they pledged to brief their leaders on the Ukrainian requests.
Biden has allowed Ukraine to fire US provided missiles across the border into Russia in self-defence, but has largely limited the distance they can be fired.
Zelensky said he hoped for changes to those limitations. “Let’s count on some strong decisions, at least. For us, it’s very important”, AP reported. 
Volodymyr Zelensky has rejected a peace proposal offered up by Brazil and China, saying it only seved as a “political statement”. 
The Ukrainian president told the Metropoles media outlet: “The proposal is also destructive…How can you offer ‘here is our initiative’ without asking any from us?”
The plan, proposed in May this year, proposed direct negotiation between Russia and Ukraine, an international peace conference accepted by both countries, the provision of humanitarian assistance, and no attacks on civilians.
Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned energy company, said it would continue sending gas to Europe via Ukraine on Thursday. 
Some 42.4 million cubic metres of gas will be sent to the continent, roughly the same amount as has been sent in recent days.
Russia is using company-sized units in its operations to take back Kursk, military analysts have suggested.
A military company is part of a battalion and usually consists of anywhere between a few dozen to 200 soldiers.
The Institute for the Study of War also noted that it remains unclear whether Russia has enough forces necessary to counter Ukraine’s invasion given that troops were likely redeployed from parts of Ukraine.
Russian forces attacked energy facilities and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine’s northeastern town of Konotop overnight, officials in Sumy region said on Thursday.
The attack injured at least 13 people, based on preliminary information, according to the statement.
Ukrainian forces have launched fresh attacks against Russia’s counteroffensive in Kursk. 
Moscow’s forces launched a counteroffensive in the border region more than a month after Kyiv’s initial invasion on Aug 6. 
Attacks have been reported west of Snagost and throughout the areas captured by Ukraine in the initial incursion, the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think-tank, said.
Kyiv claims it captured 1,300 sq km of Russian land across more than 100 settlements in Kursk, which it said was designed to create a “buffer zone” to protect Ukraine from attacks.
Russian forces may intend to temporarily bisect the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast before beginning a more organized and well-equipped effort to push Ukrainian forces out of Russian territory. (1/3)▪️ Russian forces are currently conducting counterattacks along the western… https://t.co/3BnFlei3KB pic.twitter.com/3Yeugexotq
Vladimir Putin has been urged to toughen Russia’s nuclear weapons policy against countries that “support Nato aggression in Ukraine”. 
Sergei Karaganov, an influential policy hawk, said Moscow could launch a limited nuclear strike on a Nato country without triggering all-out war.
The main goal of Russia’s nuclear doctrine, Mr Karaganov said, “should be to ensure that all current and future enemies are sure that Russia is ready to use nuclear weapons”.
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